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Climate Change Information

I.Transition Risk
1.Financial Carbon Emissions

By providing a globally recognized framework, PCAF fosters consensus within the financial industry regarding each contribution and progress made toward climate action. As data quality improves, this tool will become increasingly valuable in assessing the impact of financial activities on the climate. In accordance with the financial asset categories and methodologies defined by PCAF, and with reference to the “Practical Guidelines for Financial Carbon Emissions (Scope 3) of Domestic Futures Firms’ Investment Portfolios” issued by the Taiwan Futures Association, Capital Futures has conducted a carbon inventory for relevant long-term investment positions (accounted for as financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income). The financial carbon emissions of these long-term investment positions amount to 93.315 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), with an overall data quality score of 1.018 (where a score of 1 indicates the highest data quality and 5 the lowest).

2.Scenario Analysis

Capital Futures evaluates scenarios based on the NGFS framework, including six related climate change scenarios such as orderly transition, disorderly transition, and uncontrolled warming, as shown in the table below.

【Explanation of Scenario Analysis for Transition Risk】

Scenario 2030 Carbon Price 2050 Carbon Price
Orderly Transition Scenario 1.Net Zero 2050 $ 95.48 per ton $ 563.38 per ton
Scenario 2.Below 2°C $ 64.33 per ton $ 248.06 per ton
Disorderly Transition Scenario 3.Divergent Net Zero $ 231.15 per ton $ 958.05 per ton
Scenario 4.Delayed transition $ 0 per ton $ 388.72 per ton
Uncontrolled Global Warming Scenario 5.Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) $ 0.41 per ton $ 0.41 per ton
Scenario 6.Current Policies $ 0 per ton $ 0 per ton

【Results of Scenario Analysis for Transition Risk】

Scenario 2030 2050
【Scenario 1】
2050 Net-Zero Carbon Emissions
Low Emission Scenario, Temperature Increase of Approximately 1.4°C
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0038%
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0223%
【Scenario 2】
Temperature Increase Below 2°C
Moderate Emission Scenario, Temperature Increase of Approximately 1.6°C
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0025%
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0098%
【Scenario 3】
Disorderly Achievement of Net-Zero Carbon Emissions
Low Emission Scenario, Temperature Increase of Approximately 1.4°C
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0091%
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0378%
【Scenario 4】
Delayed Transition
Moderate Emission Scenario, Temperature Increase of Approximately 1.6°C
Decrease in Net Worth
0%
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.0154%
【Scenario 5】
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
High Emission Scenario, Temperature Increase of Approximately 2.6°C
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.000016%
Decrease in Net Worth of Approximately
0.000016%
【Scenario 6】
Policy Stays the Same
High Emission Scenario, Temperature Increase of More Than 3°C
Decrease in Net Worth
0%
Decrease in Net Worth
0%
II.Physical Risk
1.Climate Change Disaster Risk Distribution Map

The National Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) has published the results of "Climate Change Flood Disaster Risk Assessment" and "Climate Change Landslide Disaster Risk Assessment" on the Dr.A Climate Change Disaster Risk Adaptation Platform. These results are mapped by administrative units of towns, townships, cities, and districts, simulating and forecasting flooding and landslide disasters. The entire Taiwan is analyzed into five risk levels. Capital Futures, affected by physical risks, will experience varying impacts depending on the location of individual operational sites. Based on the risk levels classified in the disaster risk maps, each operational site is assessed for its exposure to flooding and landslide disasters. The statistics are as follows:

【Flooding】

Time Point Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1
Base Period 1 Area 0 0 3 Area 1 Area
Future Projection Period 1 Area 3 Area 1 Area 0 0

【Landslide Disaster】

Time Point Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1
Base Period 0 0 0 0 5 Area
Future Projection Period 0 0 0 1 Area 4 Area
2. Scenario Analysis

According to the climate risk definitions proposed by the IPCC, risk is composed of three factors: Hazard (H), Vulnerability (V), and Exposure (E). "Hazard" refers to the degree of threat posed by climate or non-climate factors to the object of protection (the target of risk assessment). "Vulnerability" refers to the extent to which the object of protection is susceptible to impacts and potential losses from the given hazard conditions. "Exposure" refers to the degree to which the object of protection is exposed to the threat of the hazard in terms of time and space.

Physical risk scenario: Simulate the expected average annual flood loss for each operating site under different emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 to 8.5), using the formula R = H × V × E.

Scenario Mid-Century (2041-2060) End of Century (2081-2100)
RCP 2.6
Flooding
0.27 Ten Thousand Dollars 0.29 Ten Thousand Dollars
RCP 4.5
Flooding
1.47 Ten Thousand Dollars 1.69 Ten Thousand Dollars
RCP 6.0
Flooding
0.05 Ten Thousand Dollars 10.85 Ten Thousand Dollars
RCP 8.5
Flooding
1.45 Ten Thousand Dollars 22.44 Ten Thousand Dollars
::: Capital Securities Capital Inv. Cons. Capital Insurance Capital Asset Mgmt. Capital HK
Futures Corporation:(02)2700-2888
B1, No. 97, Section 2, Dunhua South Road, Taipei City
Taichung Branch:(04)2319-9909
3F-6, No. 633, Sec. 2, Taiwan Blvd, Xitun Dist, Taichung City
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